Sunday, 27 August 2017

Correction to MInutes

In the minutes of the August meeting we used a number of figures (to calculate the ratios of plot provision to population in Bolton)  which have since been updated / revised.

Using data from the bolton.gov.uk website
Our current estimate of the 2015 population is 281,436

The number of dwellings in Bolton in 2015 is estimated at 119,867

Hence number of persons per dwelling is (approx.) 2.35

(the Bolton website suggests that average household size in new dwellings is falling)

Hence given that Bolton had 959 plots in 2015 and a (full-sized) plot is approx. 250 sq metres

Bolton has (959 x 250) / (119.876) sq metres per 1000 dwellings or approx. 2,000 sq metres per 1000 dwellings.

The NAS target is 5,000 sq metres per 1000 dwellings (for new developments)

Hence Bolton is about 40 % of target.

There are a number of issues with these figures e.g. -

1. Can we assume all plots are 250 sq metres - is there a better figure available for an average plot?

2. Is household size in new dwellings the same as household size in existing properties?

3. Can we therefore use the NAS target as a guide to assessing the adequacy of existing provision? - we also have waiting list data which suggests a large and growing demand for plots

Etc.

But we're working with what we have - and we're continuing to search for comparison data across Greater Manchester


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